“Planned maintenance on Northwest Pipeline (NWPL) beginning Monday and lasting through Saturday (May 26) could disrupt over 150 MMcf/d of San Juan Basin outflows,” Genscape analyst Joe Bernardi told clients Friday. “NWPL will perform a hydrotest between its Moab and Cisco compressor stations in southeastern Utah, which will require these points to go to zero flow. “These points typically bring San Juan molecules north, with an average throughput of 179 MMcf/d over the past month,” Bernardi said. “There has not been an equivalent NWPL maintenance event within recent years, but reroutes could occur onto Transcolorado, El Paso or Transwestern.”
You are here
On the supply side, shoulder season maintenance has contributed to a 2.6 Bcf/d drop in production since Monday, according to Genscape Inc. analyst Rick Margolin.
Genscape affiliate Spring Rock’s daily pipe production estimate as of Wednesday showed “Northeast volumes down more than 1.6 Bcf/d from Monday with large maintenance-induced disruptions in northeastern and southwestern Pennsylvania,” Margolin said. “...Texas production is estimated to be down nearly 0.5 Bcf/d since Monday, followed by nearly 0.3 Bcf/d of additional disruptions to Gulf of Mexico supplies.”
Energy industry intelligence service Genscape said it observed brief decreased activity from the largest crude distillation unit at the Whiting refinery on Wednesday morning.
It deployed tugs Resolve Hercules and Resolve Commander to the Atlantic islands. These will be used for dismantling and removing ferry Mestre Simao, which ran aground on the rocks at the port of Madalena on Pico Island on 6 January, according to Vesseltracker.
Energy industry intelligence service Genscape said that Pipestill 7, the second largest crude distillation unit (CDU) at the Baytown refinery, showed signs increased activity on Friday.
Lower 48 temperatures are expected to warm up to well above normal levels next week, Genscape Inc. natural gas analyst Rick Margolin told clients Thursday. Based on overnight model runs heading into Thursday, Genscape meteorologists were “calling for even warmer-than-previously expected cooling degree days (CDD) to start next week, with CDDs rising to a peak of 57.3 CDDs by Tuesday, then decreasing to about 30 CDDs by Friday,” Margolin said. “Even at that low point, CDDs are expected to be 90% hotter than normal for this time of year.
In the California market, “gas demand is structurally contracting because of the growth of renewables alongside aggressive energy efficiency standards that hold load growth in check,” according to Genscape’s Margolin. This week “that trend gained further momentum with the California Energy Commission adopting a rule requiring all new homes built after Jan. 1, 2020 be equipped with solar.”
There are currently 15 rail loading terminals in the Permian region with the ability to load 500,000 to 600,000 bpd, according to market intelligence firm Genscape.
Crude traded up to 3-1/2 year highs early in the session, and then retreated after a bearish inventory figure from energy industry information supplier Genscape, before rallying on geopolitical risks just before the settlement, traders said.
Meanwhile, as Genscape Inc. natural gas analyst Rick Margolin noted Wednesday, the big news in the energy space this week came when President Trump on Tuesday announced that he would be withdrawing the United States from the Iran nuclear deal. And higher crude prices mean more associated gas, Margolin noted.
“These rallies in crude keep lifting our Spring Rock production forecasts” for natural gas, with forecasts this week showing a “year-on-year increase of more than 7.5 Bcf/d for the calendar strip,” he said. “The crude rally’s impact on gas production resonates in liquids-rich plays” like the Permian Basin, Denver-Julesburg and Bakken Shale. “Even in areas like the Eagle Ford, which -- just a few months ago -- was priced to show declining gas production is now poised to add more than 0.3 Bcf/d year-on-year.”
The Tuesday fire broke out on the Bacliff substation at about 4:30 p.m. CDT (2130 GMT) with flaring seen at the Marathon and Valero refineries about 20 minutes later, according energy industry intelligence service Genscape.